Bitcoin Rebounds Above $115K, But Why?

Bitcoin pushed past $115,000 over the weekend, buoyed by renewed optimism surrounding U.S.–China trade negotiations that reignited risk appetite across global markets.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency rose roughly 3.5% between Saturday and Sunday, climbing from $111,000 to $115,400 before stabilizing. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $115,200, according to CoinGecko. Despite the uptick, the asset remains about 6% below its record high of $126,000 set earlier in October.

The rebound came as officials from Washington and Beijing reportedly reached a preliminary framework during meetings in Malaysia, an early sign of progress toward easing long-standing trade tensions. The development boosted investor sentiment across both traditional and digital markets.

“Bitcoin’s weekend rally reflects how closely macro factors continue to influence crypto,” said Daniel Liu, CEO of Republic Technologies. “As traders priced in a more constructive outlook for global trade, risk assets including Bitcoin benefited from the shift in sentiment.”

Traders Eye Macro Relief, Not Fundamentals

Analysts noted that the weekend’s price action was driven more by liquidity and sentiment than by changes in trade fundamentals. “This is a reflexive move,” Liu added. “Markets are responding to the idea of looser conditions rather than any structural change in the U.S.–China dynamic.”

On prediction platform Myriad, market sentiment leaned toward “greed,” peaking at around 60% on Sunday before easing slightly.

Whales Hold Steady as On-Chain Data Lags

While the broader market turned positive, on-chain activity has yet to fully confirm the rally. Data from Tiger Research indicates that key network indicators, including transaction counts and active addresses, remain below levels seen earlier this month.

However, large Bitcoin holders, often referred to as “whales”, appear unfazed. Despite heavy liquidations that wiped out nearly $19 billion in leveraged positions earlier this month, accumulation among mid- to large-scale investors continues, suggesting confidence in Bitcoin’s longer-term trajectory.

Short-Term Volatility Ahead

Analysts expect near-term fluctuations as attention turns to the upcoming APEC summit, where trade and technology discussions between the U.S. and China are likely to feature prominently.

“Renewed dialogue between the two nations has supported Bitcoin and other risk assets,” said Daniel Kim, CEO of Tiger Research. “But traders should brace for more volatility this week as macro headlines continue to drive momentum.”

Even so, the outlook for the final quarter of 2025 remains broadly optimistic. Tiger Research maintains its $200,000 year-end target for Bitcoin, citing expanding global liquidity, institutional inflows, and a potential shift toward a more accommodative U.S. Federal Reserve policy.