Weekly Market Update: Bitcoin Reclaims $100K Despite Middle East Turmoil

Bitcoin has surged back above the $100,000 mark, recovering from a sharp dip triggered by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The flagship cryptocurrency briefly fell below this key psychological level for the first time in months, rattled by U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

The strikes, confirmed by President Donald Trump, escalated the already volatile standoff between Iran and Israel. Tehran’s response, deciding to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil chokepoint, sent shockwaves through global markets. Oil prices are now projected to climb as high as $130 per barrel, prompting fears of inflation in the U.S. surging back toward 5%.

Crypto markets reacted swiftly. On June 22, Bitcoin dropped nearly 4% to a low of $98,615, while Ethereum lost around 10% and Solana fell by 5%. Investors fled to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar, resulting in nearly $40 billion in crypto market value wiped out and approximately $1 billion in long positions liquidated.

Despite the turmoil, Bitcoin rebounded strongly. Daily trading volume soared by 75.8% to over $48.4 billion, according to Coinglass, and derivatives trading activity jumped 67% to $136 billion. While open interest declined slightly, suggesting short-term caution, market analysts believe many investors are temporarily reducing exposure rather than exiting entirely.

Technically, Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remains bearish. The price is currently trading below its 10-day and 20-day exponential moving averages, both trending downward. It has also broken below the midline of the Bollinger Bands, with the next key support level seen around $98,000.

Momentum indicators are mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 39, signaling weakness without yet entering oversold territory. However, stochastic oscillators suggest a possible short-term rebound, though 10-day momentum and MACD remain firmly in negative territory.

If geopolitical tensions ease, Bitcoin may retest resistance levels in the $105,000–$106,000 range. But should the conflict escalate, particularly if Iran follows through on military threats, analysts warn the price could drop toward $92,000 or lower.

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s next move may hinge on the pace of diplomatic resolution and the resilience of spot Bitcoin ETFs in absorbing sell-side pressure. With uncertainty hanging over the market, the coming days could prove critical in determining the trajectory of the crypto space.